Bitcoin falls below $60K again as 21Shares admits its prediction against the four-year cycle hasn't played out, though it says market structure has shifted.
Bitcoin News
Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $60,000 on Wednesday, June 24, for the second time this month. Crypto investment firm and ETF issuer 21Shares said in its latest "State of the Market" report that its earlier prediction that the asset would break from its historical four-year cycle in 2026 has not come true.
The four-year cycle is a historical trading pattern in which Bitcoin tends to peak and then bottom following the quadrennial halving of its mining reward. Heading into 2026, 21Shares had predicted this cycle could be finished. Six months later, the firm acknowledged that price action still looks familiar, writing, "We have to be honest."
Bitcoin has fallen 52% from its all-time high of $126,080, changing hands at $59,781 on Wednesday. The asset is still trading above its on-chain cost basis of $54,000, according to data from Glassnode, which the firm said signals the market has not reached outright capitulation.
Market Structure Has Shifted Even as Cycle Holds
21Shares added that while the four-year cycle has not broken, the market has bent in other ways, clarifying that its broader thesis "is not entirely wrong." The firm pointed to a current drawdown of roughly 50%, which remains far milder than the 80%-plus bear markets seen in prior cycles.
The firm said exchange-traded fund (ETF) ownership of Bitcoin has become increasingly institutional, a shift it said has helped stabilize the market compared with past downturns. Bitcoin ETFs have not, however, seen the level of investment inflows that 21Shares had expected for the year.
ETF Outflows Have Outpaced Earlier Forecasts
21Shares had anticipated that crypto ETFs would approach $400 billion in assets under management this year. In the past six months of activity, more assets have left crypto ETFs than have entered them, a trend the firm said has contributed to the decline from all-time highs in both Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH).
Data cited by CoinGlass shows nearly $3 billion in assets left crypto ETFs during the last quarter, with total crypto ETF assets down nearly $5 billion since the start of the year.
Other forecasts from the firm have also fallen short so far this year, including predictions of a stablecoin market cap reaching $1 trillion, DeFi total value locked reaching $300 billion, and digital asset treasury firms reaching $250 billion in assets under management.
The firm attributed the shortfalls to lingering regulatory uncertainty, ongoing DeFi exploits, and falling crypto prices. One forecast that remains on track is the firm's projection that prediction market trading volumes would surpass $100 billion this year.
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