Prediction platforms clocked record-breaking trading volumes this week as markets tied to fast-moving geopolitical headlines drew heavy participation.
Prediction platforms clocked record-breaking trading volumes this week as markets tied to fast-moving geopolitical headlines drew heavy participation.
The surge has generated millions of dollars in fees across platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, while also raising questions about what kinds of contracts are appropriate to trade during periods of conflict.
However, ongoing controversy and mounting regulatory scrutiny have not stopped large financial institutions, such as Nasdaq, from crowding into the burgeoning sector with fresh prediction-style products.
Record-Breaking Volumes
Kalshi volumes and open interest are surging. Source: kalshidata.com
Polymarket’s “World” markets surged this week as traders piled into contracts tied to rapidly evolving geopolitical events.
On-chain data shows that a long-running contract tied to Middle East developments has now cleared more than $500 million in cumulative volume, placing it among the platform’s highest-volume markets ever.
The market logged nearly $90 million in trades on Feb. 28 alone, according to a CoinDesk report.
Polymarket and Kalshi collectively posted daily trading volumes above $500 million this week, according to Token Terminal and Kalshidata.com.
The surge followed a softer February for the sector. Prediction markets posted a monthly volume decline for the first time in five months, to Artemis.
Artemis data shows prediction markets logged roughly $23 billion in February volume, down about 12% from January’s record $27 billion.
Testing Limits
Kalshi unwound a market tied to a head of state’s ouster. Source: Kalshi
The volume spike has put platform guardrails under a brighter spotlight.
Kalshi drew backlash for its handling of a market tied to a leadership change, while Polymarket faced renewed scrutiny over suspected insider trading.
On Feb. 28, Kalshi voided a market tied to a high-profile leadership outcome, reimbursing users rather than paying out winning positions.
CEO Tarek Mansour Kalshi’s decision reflected a long-standing policy against “death markets” designed to prevent users from profiting directly from a person’s death.
Controversy flared on Polymarket as well.
Bubblemaps flagged six wallets that collectively netted about $1 million to $1.2 million by buying “yes” positions on a tightly timed contract shortly before it resolved, according to The Block.
Analysts said the wallets were funded shortly beforehand and concentrated on a specific date, renewing scrutiny around whether sensitive markets enable insider trading.
U.S. lawmakers they are working on legislation aimed at tightening rules around insider activity and the types of contracts platforms can list.
Polymarket has reportedly pruned several long-running “catastrophe” markets, including contracts tied to nuclear-detonation scenarios.
Institutional Interest
Kalshi has created markets tied to luxury watch prices. Source:
Prediction markets faced fresh state-level pressure this week after court rulings in Nevada increased the risk of trading halts for Kalshi and Polymarket.
Nevada regulators argue the platforms’ sports-related contracts function as unlicensed gambling.
Even so, institutional interest has continued to build.
On March 2, Nasdaq filed to list “Outcome Related Options,” a yes-or-no product tied to the Nasdaq-100, signaling Wall Street’s growing comfort with prediction-style contracts.
Meanwhile, Kalshi pushed into a new category for event contracts, a partnership with luxury watch marketplace Bezel that will let users trade contracts tied to watch prices.
By the Numbers
What price will Bitcoin hit in February?
- $65,000: 68.2%
- $75,000: 53.0%
- $60,000: 33.5%
- $80,000: 24.5%
Source: Vortex
What price will Ethereum hit in February?
- $2,200: 55%
- $1,800: 52.5%
- $2,400: 32.0%
- $1,600: 26.5%
Source: Vortex
What price will Solana hit in February?
- $80: 79.0%
- $100: 42.5%
- $70: 38.0%
- $110: 19.0%
Source: Vortex
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